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德国IFO研究机构-Ifo Business Climate Germany

时间:2009-11-20 10:29:35  来源:  作者:
 

 

 

Ifo Business Survey October 2009
Slight Improvement of the Ifo Business Climate
Results of the October 2009 Ifo Business Survey
The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany has risen further in October. The surveyed firms are slightly less dissatisfied with their current business situation than in September. They have again given more favourable appraisals of the business outlook for the coming six months. The economic recovery continues hesitantly.
In manufacturing the business climate is not quite as poor as it was in the previous month. The continuingly unfavourable business situation for manufacturers has improved slightly. With regard to the six-month business outlook, the survey participants are more confident than in September. Despite the appreciation of the euro, the firms see improved export opportunities. They are utilising their production capacities at a slightly higher pace than in the summer, although the utilisation rate is still far below average. The firms are planning to slow down the pace of staff reductions somewhat.
In wholesaling the business climate index has risen further. The survey participants report a clearly improved business situation in comparison to the previous month. Their appraisal of the business outlook is somewhat more critical, however. Retailers are more dissatisfied with their current business situation. They are also more sceptical regarding the six-month business outlook than in September. As a result, the business climate in retailing has worsened.
In construction the business climate remains largely unchanged. The firms are slightly more dissatisfied with their current business situation but have given more favourable assessments of their business outlook than in the previous month.
Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich
Download the press release for Ifo Business Climate Germany and German Services Sector as PDF-file:
Slight Improvement of the Ifo Business Climate
Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the October 2009 Ifo Business Survey (23 Oct 2009)
Icon: PDF-Format Document Size: ca. 100 kb

Chart: ifo Geschäftsklima Deutschland

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Index, 2000 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
  10/08 11/08 12/08 01/09 02/09 03/09 04/09 05/09 06/09 07/09 08/09 09/09 10/09
Climate 89.9 85.8 82.7 83.1 82.6 82.2 83.8 84.4 86.0 87.4 90.5 91.3 91.9
Situation 99.5 94.7 88.8 86.7 84.3 82.7 83.6 82.6 82.5 84.4 86.2 87.1 87.3
Expectations 81.2 77.8 77.0 79.6 81.1 81.8 84.1 86.1 89.7 90.5 95.0 95.7 96.8
Source: Ifo Business Survey
The Ifo Business Climate for Germany (from January 1991)
The table is in Excel-format for facilitating further processing by the user.
Long time-series of the Business Climate for German trade and industry and its two components, the business situation and the expectations Icon: Excel-Format Document Size: ca. 40 kb

Chart: Geschäftslage und -erwartungen nach Wirtschaftsbereichen (Salden, saisonbereinigt)

Ifo Business Climate Germany (Balances, seasonally adjusted)
  10/08 11/08 12/08 01/09 02/09 03/09 04/09 05/09 06/09 07/09 08/09 09/09 10/09
Trade and Industry -20.8 -28.9 -35.2 -34.3 -35.3 -36.1 -32.9 -31.9 -28.6 -25.8 -19.6 -18.0 -16.7
Manufacturing -19.7 -29.6 -40.0 -39.9 -42.6 -42.7 -37.7 -37.6 -33.4 -29.5 -21.8 -19.8 -16.7
Construction -27.6 -30.0 -30.2 -29.3 -24.4 -22.1 -24.3 -26.3 -26.6 -25.3 -24.0 -25.7 -25.2
Wholesaling -15.6 -21.9 -26.3 -25.5 -27.8 -31.5 -30.3 -28.0 -25.0 -22.3 -14.4 -12.1 -10.9
Retailing -25.4 -33.1 -30.3 -26.4 -24.2 -28.1 -26.3 -20.9 -17.1 -17.7 -14.9 -12.4 -17.3
Source: Ifo Business Survey

Chart: ifo Konjunktur-Uhr Deutschland
Explanatory note
The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactorily” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For calculating the index values the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2000.
Detailed results
One week after the Ifo Business Climate Index is released, the Ifo Institute publishes, in the periodical "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven", the results of the most recent Ifo Business Survey in east and west Germany in all details with texts and graphics as well as the business situation for the EU as a whole and for Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy in figures. To inform non-German speakers of the survey results of the Ifo Institute, we present a short overview of the contents of each issue in English. 
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